These betting strategies are one contributors opinion
My knowledge of sports betting comes from years of being a novice recreational bettor followed by years of being on the inside of a Sports Book. Expect first hand knowledge from high quality Sports Book data software, real career long profitable handicappers, and profitable strategies with with mathematical explanation to back it up from both sides. -GBKO
I am going to assume you understand what straight bets, parlays, and basic Vegas odds are. Most recreational bettors will look at a sports card menu, see a team they like, do some very basic research to convince themselves the side they are picking is the right side to bet for whatever reason, and enjoy the game. If you do that, that is completely fine. Sports Betting is for entertainment, at the end of the day you are gambling for that. If all you care about is making the game more enjoyable, then hats off to you. However outside of those couple weeks out of the year you get hot you’re usually paying your bookie (even if you think you’re not…. trust me)
While the recreational bettor may glance at the line/price (or vig) they really don’t do a deeper analysis to the math behind those numbers. While buying the hook and paying for it may be the correct move in some occasions, in others it is the reason you will have to have to hit at a ridiculous percentage to see a profit.
What difference does it make?
Well if you place 100 wagers at (-110) of $100 each ($190.91 return) and hit exactly half your bets you will have lost money. In order to make a profit a bettor must hit 52.5% of his 100 wagers to finally see a small profit.
If you were to place those same exact $100 wagers except at a (-120) line that 52.5% hit rate is now a loss. Instead it would take 55% hit rate to finally see a small profit. Since hitting above 55% is so difficult, the recreational bettor is always at a huge disadvantage especially betting at any vig above (-110)
Many handicappers claim to hit well above that rate, which incentivizes you to sign up for their services and hope to see a profit. While some can be transparent and show losses, most handicappers just advertise winners. That’s part of their business model to sell more. Since paying a handicapper is the norm, the recreational bettor is already down the amount of money needed to buy that handicappers plays without even placing a single bet. Immediately raising that needed win percentage higher in order to see a true profit. Then you must hope that handicapper delivers… a tough task as handicapper can have cold streaks or might just be really good sellers…. if you would like to read more about handicappers click the button below.
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** Take this advice at your own risk. Practice risk management properly and do your own DD. We are not financially responsible for your decision, this content is here solely for the purpose of entertainment.