The weekend is here and we’re in for a good one with a slate of conference tournament championship games taking place today and tomorrow, then we get to find out the field of 68 just a few hours later on Sunday evening. For those of you who love sports in general, you should find it difficult leaving your couch or avoiding checking your phone every 3 seconds because we have UFC, The Players Championship, NBA, and Soccer along with the stacked NCAA Hoops slate. Last night went well for us here on this thread as we came ended the night in the green which included hitting a nice little two-team money-line parlay. Today’s card includes another ML parlay along with a few plays, albeit not as many as yesterday. One thing you want to avoid on these stacked cards is forcing plays and that’s one thing I will not do. Enough talking, here are the plays! Be on the lookout for the weekend recap/Selection Sunday article tomorrow where I’ll tally up the weekly totals and give a few tournament winners to look at taking after the brackets are given out.
Illinois -3 (-120) (1 unit)– The first play finds us in the Big 10 Semi-Final where the Illinois will look to notch their 2nd victory this season over Iowa. The first victory for the Illini was closely contested with the team in orange pulling away for an 80-75 victory. Both teams are in good form with Illinois really starting to heat up on both ends of the floor. Last night Iowa needed 2nd half heroics to come away with a victory while Illinois had no problem dispatching Rutgers. This play comes down to Illinois being the better defensive team as well as Illinois having a few more players who can get a bucket when needed. Also, Iowa struggles against teams who can shoot the 3 efficiently as they give it up at a 35% clip while Illinois shoots it fairly well at 38%. When it comes to the money distribution, it looks like the sharps are on our side as Illinois is only taking in 39% of the betting tickets but garnering 74% of all betting dollars in this matchup. Lastly, I know everyone loves Luka Garza but I think Illinois comes equipped with the front court to make things difficult enough on the All-American to pull this victory and cover out. Kofi Cokburn is a 7 footer averaging 17 ppg, also the Illini are monsters on the offensive boards with a strong 33% Off. Reb % per KenPom. Iowa struggles in this department allowing a 29% Off. Reb % against opposing teams. Back the Illini and the masked man Ayo Dosunmo who comes into the matchup averaging 21 PPG from the PG position.
Florida St -4 (-120) (1 unit)– New Bloods versus Blue Bloods, the Seminoles find themselves in another ACC Championship game and are starting to make a real claim for being considered a national powerhouse. Florida St. comes into the matchup today against Georgia Tech with what seems to be another iteration of the teams we’ve grown accustomed to seeing with their crazy length coming in at a team average of 79.6″ vs. 76.4″ for Georgia Tech. Both teams are fairly even on defense, but Georgia Tech allows an Effective FG % of 51.8% which includes 36.1% from 3 and 50.5% from 2. Florida State is not afraid to let it rain from 3, and they’re efficient as evidenced by a 38.5% 3P% which is good for 12th in the nation. Another point to be considered is that length we brought up earlier, Georgia Tech loves to get points inside the 3 point line as 53.5% of their points come from 2-pointers. This bodes well for the lengthy Seminoles as they have a Top-10 defense against the 2, only allowing teams to hit at a 43.5% clip. Lastly, when looking at Vegas while FSU is only getting 36% of betting tickets, they’re currently receiving 96% of all dollars being wagered.
Prairie View A&M -2.5 (1 unit)
Alabama/Arkansas ML Parlay (1 unit)